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Internal Conflicts Lie Ahead for Libyan Rebels - Analyst

libya interim governmentAs the Libyan National Transitional Council (NTC) prepares to move its headquarters to Tripoli after rebel fighters took over the city, analysts foresee internal conflicts ahead for them.

Although currently united under the common cause of defeating former dictator Moammar Gaddafi, it is very likely that there will be power struggles over shares of political and economic benefits in their new state, says Dr. Aristos Aristotelous, an expert on defence and strategy and former MP.

The insurgents come from different regions and sub-cultures of the country; western, eastern, Arab, nomadic, tribal, Islamic and each group will expect to have a role in sharing power and economic benefits, he says. The mosaic may shatter without the necessary maturity, restraint and cooperation to rebuild the country.

The main risk is that militants will fall back on the use of force to resolve disputes, says the analyst. Similar events were recorded during regime changes in Iraq and Afghanistan, he says. Conflict is probably inevitable and the instability in the country will be long term and possibly bloody, says Aristotelous.

Who runs the NTC?

Mahmoud Jibril is the chairman of the NTC's governing structure. He is an economist educated in the US and used to run Libya's National Economic Development Council.

Mustafa Abdel-Jalil runs the NTC's executive committee and he is a jurist and former Libya Justice Minister.

Dr. Ali Al-Isawwi is vice-chairman of the NTC's executive council and the former Minister of Economy. Its vice-chairman is Abdel Hafidh Ghoga, a civil rights lawyer.

In the rebels' favour is international help coming from the United Nations Security Council, which will unfreeze 1.5 billion USD in Libyan assets for humanitarian aid.

Part of the NTC is the Libyan Stabilisation Team, which also aims to get Libya's economy running again, mainly by re-starting oil production. But it will take many years to reach production figures of 1.6 million barrels of oil per day from their current 100,000 barrels per day.


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